Gave up 100% exactly of yesterday's winnings. Lost the first 6 trades and was down £10 so panicked and implemented stop loss mode meaning I was trading at 10% of normal stakes. I was watching, noticed I wasn't getting matched on winning trades and feared my bot was too slow again. Won the next 2 and went back to normal stakes. Won another 2 and was almost at break even then lost 8 of the next 11, panicked again and went to stop loss stakes.
In the end if I wasn't watching I would have lost about £6 instead of £20 as everytime I went to stop loss stakes I won. I have to conclude this was a bad day at the office as I checked and about 26% of my bets didn't get matched. The normal range is between 19% and 28% so far
This really calls into question my daily stop loss principle. If however I had stuck with the stop loss after 6 bets would only have lost £10
I even checked to see if Sunday was a bad day but it was actually OK. Also checked the courses and there may be something here. Southwell is not great historically but I just don't have enough data on Muss and Ling yet.
Should I stop the daily stop loss ? I just don't know. My preference would be to scrap the stop loss and gather as much data as I can. The problem is if there is a fundamental change in the markets I could do my bank. Also large daily losses would affect my confidence.
So I guess my answer is keep the stop loss. I still gather data by trading at 10% of normal. Also today would have been -£10 instead of -£20.
I also reviewed history by day and found out historically Mondays & Tuesdays are not great. I won't rely on this as I have only about 6 weeks data.
The chart below tells the story. Red is actual trades & blue is if I had not messed about with my stakes
I need to stop watching and changing the rules as I go along. One reason I watch is because my homemade excel bot has let me down before. Also you learn when you watch.
May also implement a target where once reached go down to 10% stakes. Hmmm
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