Lucky Winnings

Profit since last update £21.41

Above looks very good but came from a match betting error and under 2.5 goals bet.

I placed a qualifying bet on Panseraikos on their game vs Iraklis originally scheduled for 3rd January, backing at Interwetten and laying at betfair. The game was postponed and since betfair hold on to your cash for 3 days (the bet stands if the game is replayed in this period) and Interwetten like most bookies cancel the bet, I made a mental note to remember to back if the game was rescheduled to be played within 3 days. Very busy at work and completely forgot, looked into my account today and I had won £18.16 after commission. I am happy I won the cash but not happy that I wasn't on the ball as this could cost me a lot in the future.

The second was more straightforward. Backed under 2.5 goals in the Braga vs Bellenses game which finished 2-0 to Braga.

Not much has happened on the trading the horses front as I have been busy at work and didn't have the time to try to use logmein from work.

I did do my research on a strategy I had used previously to win about £150 over about 30 bets. I then tried to improve the profitability of the system by increasing stakes lowering my strict entry rules and lost about £200. Tried very hard to get back to the initial strategy but just couldn't.

One reason I tweaked the system was that you could spend two days watching the races and not find a match. I tried to find a way to bet more and also win more per bet and the result was a disaster.

I needed to do a big review as I knew I could get back to the original system. I thought of getting some data from fracsoft initially to do a review of about 100 to 200 races but I decided to first use the data I had collected no matter how small. The results were impressive

Wins 12 bets/25 ticks
Not matched 15 bets
Break Even 7 Bets
Losses 1 Bet/ 4 Ticks

Above is the best case scenario and timing of the exit is crucial . Some of the break even bets could be 1 tick losses and some of the wins were 1 tick wins and could be break even in real time but no matter what I believe the strategy will be profitable if I can stick to the rules. I also believe I will find up to 2 - 5 qualifying races daily assuming there are at least 3 meets.

My next trading day will probably be Sunday as I am very busy at work until Saturday. Also from next week hope to be able to bet using logmein from work.

I am busy at work for the whole of January and I know if I try to trade it will cost me but I will use this strategy which doesn't require too much time on the computer as I simply select the races in the morning and set a reminder about 15 minutes before the start. I will need logmein and Gruss's betting assistant as I will need to use stop losses and ladder interface and also excel logging to see my indicators.

On to matched betting. I have placed my last qualifying bet to enable me complete the wagering requirement at Interwetten as I just couldn't stop winning. At first I was irritated by this but then I realised it is actually a good thing as this will stave off betfair's premium charge. Only for some time I hope.