Thursday 1 January 2009

Dissapointed, Bemused, Optimistic

Daily Result: £3.28

Dissapointed
Where do I start. I lost 10 ticks today but won £3.28. This is where the disappointed and bemused comes in. Today was going to be tough as I was trying to trade with about 4 people around me and also taking my turn on the Wii. Excuses I know but most of the races were not the kinds I like to trade. Apart from Cheltenham, liquidity was either very low or there were very clear favourites with no rivals within 40 ticks. Even then there was usually no contest also for second place.

Lost 3 ticks on the first race which went 1 tick beyond my stop then rebounded to break even. 2 break even races followed then won 2 ticks. After this it was a disaster. Lost 9 ticks, 3 each on the next 3 races to finish 10 ticks down. the last 6 ticks lost were particularly disappointing as I wasn't concentrating so broke my rules.

So where did the cash come from. On the last race I layed a horse at a whopping 15.5 to win about £1.50. Risky but met all my criteria so took it. Don't know how long this laying system will last as the odds I lay at are quite high. I have a £50 bank for this split into two and will just see how far I get with this as this is just a fun sideline.

Bemused
I then logged on to betfair to see my P&L and saw I had won £2.50 on another horse in the earlier race at 2:10 that I layed at 6. How this happened I can't begin to imagine as I say it was a full house. So won £4 altogether which is £3.80 after commission. This means I lost about £1.50 trading on my testing stakes of £5 per bet irrespective of odds

I had actually planned to start using full stakes today being a new year and I now plan to take this seriously after the testing period. I believe this will just be a matter of how disciplined I am as discipline and money management is 80% of the battle.

Optimistic
Anyway my battle plan for 2009 is for split into two phases

Jan 09 targets
30 bets in my 3 different trading strategies to use as an indicator of whether I can successfully trade the strategies. I expect to be break even as even if I lose I will recoup from matched betting. Any profit will be a bonus


Mar 09 targets
To make this thing a bit more professional - betting consistently 5 days a week, leaning to lose & not chase, learn to deal with losing starts to the day & get used to the fact that trading is long & slow way to build cash. basically to learn how to deal with greed & fear.At the end of March I should have had at least 90 bets in each strategy so if I am not profitable after over 300 bets I will pack this in & move into trading forex.

My trading strategies all revolve around laying weak favorites 10 minutes before the race starts.
I will keep my 3 tick stop loss and take profits if I feel race is going against me but always expect to make at least 3 ticks.

In addition to trading I have a system for laying horses, laying under 2.5 goals and matched betting

My starting bank will be £200
Staking will be odds
under 2 £40
2-3 £20
3-4 £15
4-5 £10
5-6 £10
6 & over £5

My goals for 2009 are to
make some extra income and eventually enough to give up day job or at least go part time
buy a new car for my 40th in September
make enough to take the family on a holiday as they have to put up with a lot when I am trading
and also have some extra for good causes

Good luck to me and everyone else betting/trading out there

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